tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35336850.post6617835400573754386..comments2024-02-27T09:56:12.091+08:00Comments on KLSE TALK - 歪歪理财记事本: 昨天扫货 今天收工yyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06875759893779851289noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35336850.post-73590644500767256512016-03-11T15:55:08.216+08:002016-03-11T15:55:08.216+08:00欧盟取消反倾销税,会影响Chinwell的业绩。不知道YY知道这件事吗?
CFTrader Chi...欧盟取消反倾销税,会影响Chinwell的业绩。不知道YY知道这件事吗?<br /><br />CFTrader Chin Well (MYR1.67): Anti-dumping repealing to affect ~10% <br />We attended Chin Well’s 2QFY6/16 result and corporate update briefing today. The repealing of anti-dumping law in EU for fasteners from China (effective 26-Feb) may not be as bad as it seems. <br /><br />In terms of numbers, only its bulk sales of bolts may be affected, which makes up 20% of EU sales, i.e. MYR56m (~11% of FY15 revenue). In the likely scenario of margin compression due to the need to match China’s pricing, management has guided for single digit margins. This division is enjoying ~15% PBT currently. If this halves to 7.5%, the estimated PBT reduction is MYR4.2m, i.e. less than 10% of FY15 PBT. <br /><br />We also find comfort in (1) China’s labour cost increase; (2) part of the repealing involved a promise of being more environmentally friendly, lowering CO2 emissions and proper waste water treatment (Chin Well pays MYR0.6-0.7m every month); (3) China’s promise to cut 15% output over five years; (4) Failure of China manufacturers to stock up on wire-rod which saw prices shoot up 30% since January; (5) perception of inferior quality of China products; (6) most customers would source from various countries (as per past practice) for risk and cost hedging. <br /><br />It is hard for China to penetrate the DIY market as it is labour intensive and there is usually a 1-year customer audit period. Cost wise, environmental cost increase could mean a levelled playing field for others vs China by 2020. Lastly, there will also be a time-lag of at least a few months before China’s threat materialises, due to the above mentioned factors. <br /><br />Having said so, the fact is everyone is holding back big/bulk orders awaiting China players' pricing. Chin Well has only received small urgent orders during this period. <br /><br />Whilst it will be hard for Chin Well to repeat its 1HFY6/16 PATMI growth of 113% with the expected headwinds, management has shared two expansion plans. <br /><br />It intends to invest ~USD400k for a gabion machine end-2016. Currently, its gabion and fences capacity are fully utilised. In 2Q, wire product revenue jumped 28.2% YoY as it secured more new projects in Malaysia and began regular supplies overseas. <br /><br />Chin Well is also looking to set up a recurring source of income. It has commenced construction of a new automatic warehouse in Port Klang for MYR12.8m, which will complete within 6-9 months. It plans to utilise 30-40% of the space, whilst renting the remaining out for storage of hardware related items. At 80% utilisation, management hopes for ~MYR2m p.a. contribution. <br /><br />Separately, on the US side, it seems that the worst is over. Orders are coming in, though not consistently and not at previous levels. PrimeSource is Chin Well’s only customer in the US and the supplier of Home Depot. The PrimeSource takeover resulted in inventory rationalisation and order halts (due to over stocking previously) which affected Chin Well significantly. <br /><br />The group’s balance sheet remains solid. It currently has a net-cash position of MYR71.4m. <br /><br />As its stellar performance is not expected to continue into the 2H, we look at its 12M trailing EPS of 20.7sen (vs. annualised 1H EPS of 24.6sen). The stock is trading at 8.1x trailing EPS, which is below its 3-year historical average PER of 11.4x.蛤蜊先生https://www.blogger.com/profile/12488509430307695580noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35336850.post-11556271816156798652016-03-09T22:31:26.566+08:002016-03-09T22:31:26.566+08:00什么是高成长股? 把专注力放在公司盈利上涨。什么是高成长股? 把专注力放在公司盈利上涨。yyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06875759893779851289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35336850.post-89263841656414204342016-03-09T19:21:35.709+08:002016-03-09T19:21:35.709+08:00其实高成长股的股息比起 REIT,会高出许多吗?看起来又不太会,如果是这样,是否期待着股价快快上升?...其实高成长股的股息比起 REIT,会高出许多吗?看起来又不太会,如果是这样,是否期待着股价快快上升?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17188410543805341441noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35336850.post-54979136792656200922016-03-09T17:22:11.269+08:002016-03-09T17:22:11.269+08:00bursa malaysia, hlebrokingbursa malaysia, hlebrokingyyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06875759893779851289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35336850.post-1794235548316436302016-03-09T16:48:33.066+08:002016-03-09T16:48:33.066+08:00请问你是用什么app看股票report?请问你是用什么app看股票report?Lawrencehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02120722713003213265noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35336850.post-84993144539716548332016-03-09T15:19:10.806+08:002016-03-09T15:19:10.806+08:00只要出口股恐慌继续吹,就有机会。只要出口股恐慌继续吹,就有机会。yyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06875759893779851289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35336850.post-28884563092059431252016-03-09T13:52:38.697+08:002016-03-09T13:52:38.697+08:00ChinWell 我也是看到流口水,股价跌到之前的起涨点附近,算是风险极低了。哪里知道今天就反弹了,...ChinWell 我也是看到流口水,股价跌到之前的起涨点附近,算是风险极低了。哪里知道今天就反弹了,错过了买入时机。蛤蜊先生https://www.blogger.com/profile/12488509430307695580noreply@blogger.com