2016/03/09

昨天扫货 今天收工

昨天看到Chinwell股价跌到昨天的RM1.6x, 再看看公司刚公布的业绩和上涨的股息分派,差点就要流口水了~~

于是乎,我短短几分钟就决定卖掉1000股Sunreit,换买入1000股Chinwell。



我的选择是对或错?交给时间去说话。

这家公司也是官老推介,最近老官介绍的公司都是股价跳水,如果你不能承受股价波动,一味盯着股价,而不是公司业务,这公司绝对不适合你。



长期竞争的优势 : 未来盈利成长潜能                 


当Karex股价站不稳,业绩也是上涨,还有红股派,加上最近翻查了很多资料,我学到一个新的生意潜能启发,就是产品必须具备长期竞争的优势

当有了新启发,我认为Karex股份值得继续长期持有,其实,我是从2014年就成为Karex小股东之一至今的。

昨天的加码价格RM3.75,目前累积5550股Karex.

另外,官老说过他的致富秘诀就是投资一家今年盈利必须比去年有增长的上市公司。

Karex PE虽高,却具备盈利继续有所增长的潜能。

当我成为Karex小股东两年后,看到该公司管理层的积极,不停交出盈利上涨的成绩单出来,我愿意在公司股价下跌时,趁机增持Karex股份。

昨天在面子书写下的;

PE 本益比是用过去每股盈利和现在股价做计算,只能做参考,绝不能死板用。

一个前辈说,当年买入Lpi已经是PE 15。

PE 15代表15年回本,而后来的过程却是5年就做到了回本,就因为买入后的五年内,Lpi 每股盈利在高成长中。

Pe只是其中之一的选股指标,不是唯一,更不是100%准确的。

担心马币回升影响出口公司赚钱能力?

Karex有产品在去年12月中上架到7-11, Aeon Wellness,那么,我还有什么理由去怕?而不是看到股价下跌,就趁机买一点,再买一点回来??

买一点,再买一点的做法,就是因为我不懂低有多低。所以,我就买一点,再买一点,都好过一直等,一直等,等到只有错过~~~


本部落格一切言论和资料纯粹是我本人个人的参考记录, 绝无任何买卖建议. 任何人因看此部落格的文章而造成任何投资损失, 恕不负责.


有兴趣了解歪歪style生活化的积少成多理财投资经验,可以email meyyok@gmail.com购买以下两本电子书;

《2012: 歪歪积少成多理财投资路》电子书-RM25

《2014 歪歪积少成多理财投资路第二册:因为理财投资,我看到了magic》电子书-RM25

电子书里头有分享着我的一步一脚印的理财投资经验。

第三本书~《歪歪理财记事本精选文章》实体书


《歪歪理财记事本精选文章》没有教导快速致富,没有如何提升赚钱能力的内容,好让你有更多钱花的方法。

书里只有一些生活化的理财故事,用以加强理财投资的自律。

生活化的故事教导我们,今天不看清楚现实状况,继续像一只驼鸟一样,遇到问题只懂把头埋在洞里,以为这样敌人就看不到自己。

那么,我们也只是选择把问题抛给年级大的自己去面对而已。

你认为现在的自己更有气力和时间去面对和解决问题,还是年老时的自己更有气力和时间去面对和解决问题?

歪歪理财记事本精选文章里的故事人物,都不是小说里的虚构人物,他们可以是你我他或身边的其中一个他的写照。

每本RM50,需要邮寄到西马任何角落或东马任何角落一律RM55。 

新加坡邮费RM20,所以,就是RM70。

有兴趣购买的读者,请电邮到meyyok@gmail.com,记得标题写上《歪歪理财记事本精选文章》。

 
也许你也有兴趣阅读以下文章;


7 条评论:

  1. ChinWell 我也是看到流口水,股价跌到之前的起涨点附近,算是风险极低了。哪里知道今天就反弹了,错过了买入时机。

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    1. 只要出口股恐慌继续吹,就有机会。

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    2. 欧盟取消反倾销税,会影响Chinwell的业绩。不知道YY知道这件事吗?

      CFTrader Chin Well (MYR1.67): Anti-dumping repealing to affect ~10%
      We attended Chin Well’s 2QFY6/16 result and corporate update briefing today. The repealing of anti-dumping law in EU for fasteners from China (effective 26-Feb) may not be as bad as it seems.

      In terms of numbers, only its bulk sales of bolts may be affected, which makes up 20% of EU sales, i.e. MYR56m (~11% of FY15 revenue). In the likely scenario of margin compression due to the need to match China’s pricing, management has guided for single digit margins. This division is enjoying ~15% PBT currently. If this halves to 7.5%, the estimated PBT reduction is MYR4.2m, i.e. less than 10% of FY15 PBT.

      We also find comfort in (1) China’s labour cost increase; (2) part of the repealing involved a promise of being more environmentally friendly, lowering CO2 emissions and proper waste water treatment (Chin Well pays MYR0.6-0.7m every month); (3) China’s promise to cut 15% output over five years; (4) Failure of China manufacturers to stock up on wire-rod which saw prices shoot up 30% since January; (5) perception of inferior quality of China products; (6) most customers would source from various countries (as per past practice) for risk and cost hedging.

      It is hard for China to penetrate the DIY market as it is labour intensive and there is usually a 1-year customer audit period. Cost wise, environmental cost increase could mean a levelled playing field for others vs China by 2020. Lastly, there will also be a time-lag of at least a few months before China’s threat materialises, due to the above mentioned factors.

      Having said so, the fact is everyone is holding back big/bulk orders awaiting China players' pricing. Chin Well has only received small urgent orders during this period.

      Whilst it will be hard for Chin Well to repeat its 1HFY6/16 PATMI growth of 113% with the expected headwinds, management has shared two expansion plans.

      It intends to invest ~USD400k for a gabion machine end-2016. Currently, its gabion and fences capacity are fully utilised. In 2Q, wire product revenue jumped 28.2% YoY as it secured more new projects in Malaysia and began regular supplies overseas.

      Chin Well is also looking to set up a recurring source of income. It has commenced construction of a new automatic warehouse in Port Klang for MYR12.8m, which will complete within 6-9 months. It plans to utilise 30-40% of the space, whilst renting the remaining out for storage of hardware related items. At 80% utilisation, management hopes for ~MYR2m p.a. contribution.

      Separately, on the US side, it seems that the worst is over. Orders are coming in, though not consistently and not at previous levels. PrimeSource is Chin Well’s only customer in the US and the supplier of Home Depot. The PrimeSource takeover resulted in inventory rationalisation and order halts (due to over stocking previously) which affected Chin Well significantly.

      The group’s balance sheet remains solid. It currently has a net-cash position of MYR71.4m.

      As its stellar performance is not expected to continue into the 2H, we look at its 12M trailing EPS of 20.7sen (vs. annualised 1H EPS of 24.6sen). The stock is trading at 8.1x trailing EPS, which is below its 3-year historical average PER of 11.4x.

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  2. 请问你是用什么app看股票report?

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  3. 其实高成长股的股息比起 REIT,会高出许多吗?看起来又不太会,如果是这样,是否期待着股价快快上升?

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    1. 什么是高成长股? 把专注力放在公司盈利上涨。

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